Musings on Petrobras, Economic Recovery (PBR)
There’s little to do when one is wrong but admit, find a lesson, and move on. In that spirit, my decision to trim the majority of the Petrobras (PBR) position in the Secular Trends Portfolio was ill-timed, to say the least. I was concerned about several straight weeks of rising crude inventories, and I didn’t [...]
Current Stock Sector Weightings on the S&P, Secular Trends Portfolio
This morning there’s going to be some big changes to the Secular Trends Portfolio; as stated earlier there’s far too much cash sitting around. There are several themes that deserve representation, and a few sectors where the level of underweight (compared to the S&P 500) is more than I care to hang my hat on.
The [...]
S&P 500 Earnings Estimates - Forget About 2009, There’s No Consensus for 2008
The Ticker Sense blog had a nice post up the other day discussing the earnings potential of the S&P 500 for 2008. Below (hat tip to Birinyi Associates) shows the current estimate consensus for 2008 vs. where it stood 3 months ago. We’ve had an $11 reduction in estimates in the past quarter, with over [...]
With S&P 500 down 10% in 2 Days, Friday is Octagon Battle Day
Friday is shaping up to be a crucial testing day for the global equity markets. The S&P 500 is down 10% since election day, which Bespoke Investment Group notes is the worst 2-day showing since 1987:
Nearly every sector has approached the lows of October, and the S&P is a mere 50 points from its own [...]
Where Did the Sellers Go Today?
I was getting ready to put a title on this post that read “The Least Gratifying 10% Move Ever?”…but at the last minute, after reading all my notes, I looked past my cynicism. Not that there’s anything wrong with being cynical in this market - if I was a financial doctor, I would prescribe cynicism [...]
Interesting Reads on S&P Futures, Valuations
The major U.S. indexes are holding their ground again today after another weak lead-in from Asian and European markets. S&P futures foretold another weak day as they had on Friday, but on both occasions the futures seemed to be looking backward rather than ahead. An interesting Bloomberg piece from earlier today puts some statistics behind [...]
DJIA, S&P Futures Trade Limit-Down; Today Smells of Capitulation
This could be (and by God it should be) the day of capitulation and panic selling that most of the veteran eyes have been watching for. DJIA futures are limit-down at 550 below yesterday’s close, with similar results for the S&P 500 down 60.
Selling pressure was already high before the futures opened up on the [...]
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Pragmatic commentary on U.S. & global investing, demographics & secular trends, and the valuation of anything worth valuing. Objective, unbiased research; We believe in minimal design, zero gimmicks, and maximum results.
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Secular Trends Holdings
- Secular Trends Portfolio Real-Time Positions
- The Fuel That Fed the Subprime Meltdown (Written in September 2007)
- Performance Studies on the DJIA & Fundamental Value Stocks (11/22/08)
- Las Vegas Sands - Are They Sustainable in 2009? (Published 11/15/08)
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