Epiphany Investing

Searching Out the Optimal Portfolio of “Revelation” Stocks

Safeway Announces 2009 Guidance; Free Cash Flow to Grow (SWY)

Grocery store operator Safeway (SWY) is holding analyst meetings today, and in conjunction have put out fiscal 2009 guidance of $2.34 - $2.44 EPS, versus Reuters estimates for $2.37.
Capex will be heading lower by $400 million to $1.2 billion in 2009, and thanks to prior cost-cutting efforts, free cash flow should nearly double to $1 [...]

Brain Purge: Good Links For November 13

Given the retreat of major stock indexes back to year lows and below, I found myself needing a dose of international news and commentary. I needed to stretch out my gray matter and soak in news from around the world, because there are obviously still tail risks being represented in global equity prices.
FT’s Alphaville blog [...]

Costco Reports (1%) Comps During October; Retail Numbers to Weaken

While Wal-Mart again sets the bar for steady comps performance this year with a 2.4% rise in same-store-sales, ex-fuel. Costco, meanwhile, reported a 1% drop versus expectations of 3.6%. But if we strip out the spiking U.S. dollar’s effect on the month, the company-wide comps growth at Costco rises to 3%, with 9% international growth.
As [...]

More on this topic (What's this?)
Costco Bonuses at ShareBuilder (Geographic Independence, 11/12/08)
Costco Sharebuilder bonuses hit our accounts this morning (Geographic Independence, 12/11/08)
Herman Miller's Embody and Dealer Network (What can I do with 10 grand?, 10/12/08)
Read more on Costco Wholesale at Wikinvest

The LAST ramping trades for Portfolio - BBT, SWY, PFE

Well, this is it. I am officially done with the ramping process after these last three trades.
I can’t quite fathom the odds of trying to get this venture off the ground smack in the middle of the worst crisis of my lifetime.
What will be, will be. I will grow with it, and hopefully this portfolio [...]

More on this topic (What's this?)
BB&T Corporation (BBT) Stock Dividend Analysis (Dividend Growth Investor, 10/15/08)
Dividend Stocks in the news (Dividend Growth Investor, 12/22/08)
Stock Analysis: BB&T Corporation (BBT) (Dividends Value, 6/23/08)
Read more on BB&T, Pfizer, Safeway at Wikinvest

Safeway Brings Some Sanity Back to Expectations (SWY)

Safeway (SWY) breaks the consumer ice by essentially hitting targets of $.47 EPS and $10.2B sales (versus consensus of $.45 and $10.1B). Revenues were up 4% year-over-year, about the same as net earnings. My earlier thesis for the grocer highlights why I think this is a stock to overweight in this environment, not underweight as [...]

Adding Safeway, Costco to Secular Trends Portfolio (SWY, COST)

I’ve been watching Safeway decline for long enough, and will be adding to the Secular Trends Portfolio with a 2.5% position (1020 shares) at $23.92. I also can’t resist at least nibbling on Costco (COST) heading into the fourth quarter. Buying into a 1.5% position (235 shares) at $64.54; the Costco thesis is laid out [...]

More on this topic (What's this?)
Overwhelming Anxiety (My Trader's Journal, 9/29/08)
Costco Bonuses at ShareBuilder (Geographic Independence, 11/12/08)
Herman Miller's Embody and Dealer Network (What can I do with 10 grand?, 10/12/08)
Read more on Costco Wholesale, Safeway at Wikinvest

A Three-Pronged Thesis for Safeway

Anyone who listened to Ben Bernanke’s testimony this morning got an extremely frank rundown on the state of the U.S. consumer. Some tidbits from his testimony:
“Real economic activity in the second quarter appears to have been remarkably resilient; however in the third quarter economic activity appears to have decelerated broadly”
“Real PCE fell in June and [...]

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