Monday Morning Coffee & Preview - Earnings Upside Continues (IBM, CAT, LVS)
The weak dollar trade is back on today, as the USD is down against most major currencies. This has pushed gold, copper, and other hard commodities up to or near their highest levels of the month. Days like this are generally good for the Secular Trends Portfolio, and in early morning trade the model has [...]
Philly Fed News and Musings on Market Timing
Well it seems that I didn’t need to be in any kind of rush to get into Micron. While the Philly Fed report was an improvement, it did not add to any existing market catalysts in a meaningful way. While the diffusion index was barely negative and the best result since Sept. ‘08, the index [...]
Happy Thanksgiving
I hope you all had the opportunity to feel appreciation (and appreciated) today. I took the day off from research, to the delight and surprise of my loved ones. One thing I did look at was my posting from last week, where I pointed out four stocks whose prices simply weren’t justified. I’ll happily write [...]
Cold Morning for Stocks; 4 charts I Can’t Believe (FCX, BTU, AA, GS)
The opening this morning was destined to be poor given the jump in jobless claims, but there are several stocks in particular that have gone cliff-diving in a way I can’t truly comprehend.
First let’s look at Freeport-McMoRan, which is down about 11% this morning. Yes, copper continues to trade down this morning (currently about 4% [...]
Secular Trends Analysis (BTU, FCX, POT, CAT, LVS)
I’m still working on the best format to submit my thoughts and current areas of study relating to the Secular Trends Model Portfolio. Several readers have asked some good questions relating to the investment strategy and current equity weightings. First and foremost, the model portfolio is 100% invested in equities not because I recommend that [...]
China Flush With Coal, Possible Pricing Weakness for Peabody (BTU)
News out of China today is that quotas for coal exports were higher than expected at 15.9 million tonnes, putting the export quota total for the year above 47 million tonnes. While Chinese officials say that it’s too late in the year to put the quotas into effect, the news does reflect that China isn’t [...]
Hunting Down Some Alpha - 398 Basis Points This Week
The Secular Trends Portfolio is finally gathering up some alpha (nearly 4 full percentage points this week), and I couldn’t be more thankful after some early knife-diving purchases into names like Alcoa (AA), Peabody (BTU), and Petrobras (BTU). Volatility has been more extreme than I ever could have imagined, and sectors like industrials and basic [...]
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Pragmatic commentary on U.S. & global investing, demographics & secular trends, and the valuation of anything worth valuing. Objective, unbiased research; We believe in minimal design, zero gimmicks, and maximum results.
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Secular Trends Holdings
- Secular Trends Portfolio Real-Time Positions
- The Fuel That Fed the Subprime Meltdown (Written in September 2007)
- Performance Studies on the DJIA & Fundamental Value Stocks (11/22/08)
- Las Vegas Sands - Are They Sustainable in 2009? (Published 11/15/08)
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