A New Healthcare Strategy - Branded Pharma Out, Diagnostics, Generics In
“When you lose, Don’t lose the lesson” - The Dalai Lama
For the better part of 5 months I’ve been kicking myself over not dumping Pfizer (PFE) from the Secular Trends Portfolio the day they announced the Wyeth merger. The second I heard about the deal I honestly thought the TV announcer had made a mistake; [...]
Goldman’s Reversal on Commodities in 2009 Caps a Bipolar Year; Caterpillar Cut to Sell (CAT)
Goldman has gone from from permabull (remember the $200 oil “super-spike” call from May?) to permabear in less than one year’s time. Earlier this year the call was for an average spot price for crude between $110-$120 through 2011; today the 2009 average spot was pegged at $45. In conjunction, Goldman is slashing estimates for [...]
Obama Speaks, and The Land Grab Has Been Set
I just finished listening to Obama’s press conference announcing the new economic team, and the market seems generally disappointed by the lack of juicy details. We wanted to hear how big the stimulus package would be, and we secretly hoped to hear that capital gains rates would be preserved to expiration.
We didn’t get either, but [...]
Performance Studies on the DJIA, Fundamental Value Stocks
Friday morning I wrote a commentary piece for Investopedia that discussed the current metrics of the DJIA. Some of the metrics for the Dow Jones 30 have been misquoted in the past week, such as the current price/sales ratio. I heard several people say the P/S on the DJIA was 0.7 last week, which just [...]
The Week in Review; Markets, Obama Set Humble Tone
As we approach the second week in November, the markets are largely as uninformed on the depth of this recession as last week. The only big unknown that’s been removed from the markets is who the next POTUS will be. But President-Elect Obama has inherited one of the weakest economies any of our 44 Presidents [...]
Secular Trends Analysis (BTU, FCX, POT, CAT, LVS)
I’m still working on the best format to submit my thoughts and current areas of study relating to the Secular Trends Model Portfolio. Several readers have asked some good questions relating to the investment strategy and current equity weightings. First and foremost, the model portfolio is 100% invested in equities not because I recommend that [...]
Global Markets, I Present to you President Obama; Now What?
Well, history has been made. Barack Obama has taken a staggering 338 electoral votes, and has won the Presidency by what, in political metrics, is an all-out landslide. Just because I’m not 100% sure I’d revealed my hand already, I will say that I fully believe we’ve elected the right man for the most important [...]
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Investopedia Commentary- Where Third Avenue Sees Value (BAM, GGP, SPG, ESV, NBR)
- America's Biggest Companies Look Reasonably Priced (XOM, MSFT, QQQQ, AIG, BAC)
- Sandridge Energy Shifts Towards Oil (SD, OXY)
- Stong Dividends Worth A Look (AINV, STD, FNF, NYB, PBCT, NLY, CIM, EQR, HRP, MFA)
- The Bear Market Bottom - One Year Later (SMRT, FITB, DNDN, LVS)
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Pragmatic commentary on U.S. & global investing, demographics & secular trends, and the valuation of anything worth valuing. Objective, unbiased research; We believe in minimal design, zero gimmicks, and maximum results.
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Secular Trends Holdings
- Secular Trends Portfolio Real-Time Positions
- The Fuel That Fed the Subprime Meltdown (Written in September 2007)
- Performance Studies on the DJIA & Fundamental Value Stocks (11/22/08)
- Las Vegas Sands - Are They Sustainable in 2009? (Published 11/15/08)
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