Epiphany Investing

Searching Out the Optimal Portfolio of “Revelation” Stocks

Trimming Petrobras, Caterpillar in Secular Trends Portfolio (PBR, CAT)

There hasn’t been a lot of activity here for a couple of weeks, the unfortunate result of other obligations and my ongoing intent to put in 5-6 hours of good reading and research time for every hour spent writing up my conclusions. But hey, if it’s not broke; The Secular Trends Portfolio continues it’s alpha [...]

Caterpillar Crushes Estimates, Raises EPS Guidance for 2009 (CAT)

The Secular Trends Portfolio looks to gobble up a few more scraps of alpha today as largest holding Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) breezed past consensus estimates for $.22 per share in Q2. Net profit (that’s right folks, net) came in at $.60/sh, or $371 million. Ex-out the one-time restructuring costs and Caterpillar posted $.72, so it [...]

Monday Morning Coffee & Preview - Earnings Upside Continues (IBM, CAT, LVS)

The weak dollar trade is back on today, as the USD is down against most major currencies. This has pushed gold, copper, and other hard commodities up to or near their highest levels of the month. Days like this are generally good for the Secular Trends Portfolio, and in early morning trade the model has [...]

Goldman’s Reversal on Commodities in 2009 Caps a Bipolar Year; Caterpillar Cut to Sell (CAT)

Goldman has gone from from permabull (remember the $200 oil “super-spike” call from May?) to permabear in less than one year’s time. Earlier this year the call was for an average spot price for crude between $110-$120 through 2011; today the 2009 average spot was pegged at $45. In conjunction, Goldman is slashing estimates for [...]

Weekend Reading: Richie Poor, Moody’s Soul-Searching, Depression Debate Begins

In the somewhat lonely life of a stock analyst these days, I read hundreds upon hundreds of articles, slides, charts, and commentary every week. Most provide a marginal benefit at best, and are just regurgitations at worst.
But as with any mining effort, it’s all about finding the few nuggets that may lead to moments of [...]

More on this topic (What's this?)
Washington Screws It Up AGAIN! (Real Wealth - Global Wealth Report, 2/4/10)
Warren Buffett Sells Moody's (MCO) Shares... Again (market folly, 12/24/09)
Moody’s Warns Of Pain Ahead For Financials, Protiability Concerns Due To Record Charge-Offs (Phil’s Stock World - Members S..., 3/10/10)
Read more on Moody's at Wikinvest

Obama Speaks, and The Land Grab Has Been Set

I just finished listening to Obama’s press conference announcing the new economic team, and the market seems generally disappointed by the lack of juicy details. We wanted to hear how big the stimulus package would be, and we secretly hoped to hear that capital gains rates would be preserved to expiration.
We didn’t get either, but [...]

The Week in Review; Markets, Obama Set Humble Tone

As we approach the second week in November, the markets are largely as uninformed on the depth of this recession as last week. The only big unknown that’s been removed from the markets is who the next POTUS will be. But President-Elect Obama has inherited one of the weakest economies any of our 44 Presidents [...]

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