Monday Morning Coffee & Preview - Earnings Upside Continues (IBM, CAT, LVS)
The weak dollar trade is back on today, as the USD is down against most major currencies. This has pushed gold, copper, and other hard commodities up to or near their highest levels of the month. Days like this are generally good for the Secular Trends Portfolio, and in early morning trade the model has [...]
ISM Services Report Hints at Mixed Bag of Sentiment; (AA)
I suppose every analyst has their favorite economic indicators, whether due to the specific sectors they follow or their slant towards bottoms-up or top-down analysis. To the latter, I try to as much of both as my resources allow, and to the former, I am a big fan of the ISM services report. (you can [...]
A Critical Day Approaches for Commodities; A Look at Wheat, Aluminum, Copper (AA, FCX, POT)
In addition to the disappointing close in the U.S. equity markets yesterday, there was also a renewed breakdown in the prices of many commodities. Due to their leverage as catalysts to Potash Corp (POT), Alcoa (AA), and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), I’m focusing in on wheat, aluminum, and copper.
Wheat
After forming a solid bottom around the $500 [...]
ISM Report Continues Streak of DOA Indicators
This morning’s release of the November ISM Report is yet another economic indicator arriving DOA, reflecting the frozen state of global markets ever since mid-September.
The headline number of 36.2% (a diffusion index - read this PMI tutorial to learn more) is the lowest reading since May of 1982, and 2.7 percentage points lower than the [...]
Happy Thanksgiving
I hope you all had the opportunity to feel appreciation (and appreciated) today. I took the day off from research, to the delight and surprise of my loved ones. One thing I did look at was my posting from last week, where I pointed out four stocks whose prices simply weren’t justified. I’ll happily write [...]
Brain Purge - Links For Friday
For today’s Brain Purge, as with last week’s addition, I find myself spinning the electronic globe for any signs of inflection. At this point, inflections in sentiment are just as important - if not more - than outright good news.
Fundamental Buyers Twiddlin’ Thumbs ‘n Holdin’ Cash
There’s not much out there to grab hold of; the [...]
Cold Morning for Stocks; 4 charts I Can’t Believe (FCX, BTU, AA, GS)
The opening this morning was destined to be poor given the jump in jobless claims, but there are several stocks in particular that have gone cliff-diving in a way I can’t truly comprehend.
First let’s look at Freeport-McMoRan, which is down about 11% this morning. Yes, copper continues to trade down this morning (currently about 4% [...]
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Investopedia Commentary- Where Third Avenue Sees Value (BAM, GGP, SPG, ESV, NBR)
- America's Biggest Companies Look Reasonably Priced (XOM, MSFT, QQQQ, AIG, BAC)
- Sandridge Energy Shifts Towards Oil (SD, OXY)
- Stong Dividends Worth A Look (AINV, STD, FNF, NYB, PBCT, NLY, CIM, EQR, HRP, MFA)
- The Bear Market Bottom - One Year Later (SMRT, FITB, DNDN, LVS)
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Pragmatic commentary on U.S. & global investing, demographics & secular trends, and the valuation of anything worth valuing. Objective, unbiased research; We believe in minimal design, zero gimmicks, and maximum results.
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Secular Trends Holdings
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- The Fuel That Fed the Subprime Meltdown (Written in September 2007)
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- Las Vegas Sands - Are They Sustainable in 2009? (Published 11/15/08)
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