If Q2 Earnings Continue This Trend, We Can Finally Get Back to Stock-Picking
As second quarter earnings roll on, an amazingly high percentage of companies are soundly beating estimates - over 70% thus far. To the eternal pessimists out there, it’s no real harbinger because estimates were set embarrassingly low. However we’re not just seeing minor beats, but an increasing number of major beats - beating estimates by [...]
Secular Trends Portfolio Update - July 15th - Strong Outperformance Continues
As I’ve contended from the beginning of the Secular Trends Model, this has probably been the most challenging time in history to invest based on long term trends. Hardly a day goes by that I don’t hear a new media outlet ask the question (or state outright) that “buy and hold investing is dead”.
Well, 9 [...]
The Week Ahead, July 13th Edition; Thoughts, Rants, & Expectations (GS)
While earnings season is officially underway, investors have been bypassing the earnings appetizers and awaiting the main course, which begins serving this week.
Alcoa is the standard torch-bearer, but it’s not a bellwether for much more than aluminum prices these days. (you can read my earlier notes on Alcoa at the end of this post on [...]
Current Stock Sector Weightings on the S&P, Secular Trends Portfolio
This morning there’s going to be some big changes to the Secular Trends Portfolio; as stated earlier there’s far too much cash sitting around. There are several themes that deserve representation, and a few sectors where the level of underweight (compared to the S&P 500) is more than I care to hang my hat on.
The [...]
Secular Trends Update 12/12 - Welcome New Readers
Hello and welcome to all the new readers who subscribed to the feed this week. As a note to all, I’ve made some changes to the layout of the Portfolio Page, which had about as much performance value as the Flintstones car. I have to self-noodle a lot of the development work here, so please [...]
Weekend Reading: Richie Poor, Moody’s Soul-Searching, Depression Debate Begins
In the somewhat lonely life of a stock analyst these days, I read hundreds upon hundreds of articles, slides, charts, and commentary every week. Most provide a marginal benefit at best, and are just regurgitations at worst.
But as with any mining effort, it’s all about finding the few nuggets that may lead to moments of [...]
S&P 500 Earnings Estimates - Forget About 2009, There’s No Consensus for 2008
The Ticker Sense blog had a nice post up the other day discussing the earnings potential of the S&P 500 for 2008. Below (hat tip to Birinyi Associates) shows the current estimate consensus for 2008 vs. where it stood 3 months ago. We’ve had an $11 reduction in estimates in the past quarter, with over [...]
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Pragmatic commentary on U.S. & global investing, demographics & secular trends, and the valuation of anything worth valuing. Objective, unbiased research; We believe in minimal design, zero gimmicks, and maximum results.
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Secular Trends Holdings
- Secular Trends Portfolio Real-Time Positions
- The Fuel That Fed the Subprime Meltdown (Written in September 2007)
- Performance Studies on the DJIA & Fundamental Value Stocks (11/22/08)
- Las Vegas Sands - Are They Sustainable in 2009? (Published 11/15/08)
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