Philly Fed News and Musings on Market Timing
Well it seems that I didn’t need to be in any kind of rush to get into Micron. While the Philly Fed report was an improvement, it did not add to any existing market catalysts in a meaningful way. While the diffusion index was barely negative and the best result since Sept. ‘08, the index [...]
Secular Trends Update 12/12 - Welcome New Readers
Hello and welcome to all the new readers who subscribed to the feed this week. As a note to all, I’ve made some changes to the layout of the Portfolio Page, which had about as much performance value as the Flintstones car. I have to self-noodle a lot of the development work here, so please [...]
Inside the Numbers for November; Big Buyers Only Tiptoeing
I wanted to close out November with a review of the performance trends in what I’ve categorized as fundamentally cheap stocks, using the S&P 500 as my universe. The original idea was to be on the lookout for the re-emergence of sideline capital, the large institutional buyers that are looking to buy long and reallocate [...]
Inside the Numbers Redux; Why We (Likely) Still Haven’t Bottomed
On October 23rd I put together some stats that I just couldn’t reconcile in a post titled “Inside the Numbers - Why We Haven’t Bottomed Yet“. I was running screens to analyze the relative performance of what I saw as the safest companies, specifically filtering the S&P 500 members for the following:
Earnings Stability - Forward [...]
Broad Market Rally Ahead of Election Results, STPortfolio Adds More Alpha
What an impressive day for the U.S. markets. Not only were they up on broad-based buying, there wasn’t much volatility going into the close. Late-day shenanigans in the past month have signaled of an overabundance of redemptions from both the hedgies and mutual funds. But today was relatively smooth, albeit on lower volumes. You can [...]
Performance Update: A Portfolio Divided, and 2 Dilemmas
The Secular Trends Model Portfolio briefly dipped below $80k before finishing the day at $804k…Currently the losses on the 6 worst holdings by performance (AA, FCX, POT, BTU, CAT, PBR) have been severe enough to destroy most of the little tidbits of alpha I was picking up on the other 16 positions. Basic Materials and [...]
The Name’s “Fundamentals” - Nice to Meet You
I was running some screens at finviz.com, and it appears that investors are starting to peek at stock fundamentals again:
As of 11:45 EST, 240 of the S&P 500 were in positive territory. Of those 240, 122 (50.8%) had forward P/E ratios under 10x.
Of the 258 stocks that were down, only 95 (36%) had sub-10 forward [...]
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Investopedia Commentary- Where Third Avenue Sees Value (BAM, GGP, SPG, ESV, NBR)
- America's Biggest Companies Look Reasonably Priced (XOM, MSFT, QQQQ, AIG, BAC)
- Sandridge Energy Shifts Towards Oil (SD, OXY)
- Stong Dividends Worth A Look (AINV, STD, FNF, NYB, PBCT, NLY, CIM, EQR, HRP, MFA)
- The Bear Market Bottom - One Year Later (SMRT, FITB, DNDN, LVS)
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Pragmatic commentary on U.S. & global investing, demographics & secular trends, and the valuation of anything worth valuing. Objective, unbiased research; We believe in minimal design, zero gimmicks, and maximum results.
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Secular Trends Holdings
- Secular Trends Portfolio Real-Time Positions
- The Fuel That Fed the Subprime Meltdown (Written in September 2007)
- Performance Studies on the DJIA & Fundamental Value Stocks (11/22/08)
- Las Vegas Sands - Are They Sustainable in 2009? (Published 11/15/08)
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