ISM Services Report Hints at Mixed Bag of Sentiment; (AA)
I suppose every analyst has their favorite economic indicators, whether due to the specific sectors they follow or their slant towards bottoms-up or top-down analysis. To the latter, I try to as much of both as my resources allow, and to the former, I am a big fan of the ISM services report. (you can [...]
Potash Corp (NYSE: POT) Slashes Q2 Earnings Est; Group Holding Up Surprisingly Well
Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc (NYSE: POT) issued a major cut to 2nd quarter earnings estimates yesterday, now calling for just $.70/share from earlier guidance of $1.10-$1.50. While this is certainly disappointing for investors in the entire space, shares of Potash Corp. are impressively holding their own today, currently down just 2% after falling nearly [...]
Philly Fed News and Musings on Market Timing
Well it seems that I didn’t need to be in any kind of rush to get into Micron. While the Philly Fed report was an improvement, it did not add to any existing market catalysts in a meaningful way. While the diffusion index was barely negative and the best result since Sept. ‘08, the index [...]
Trimming Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) in Secular Trends Portfolio; Thanks For the Crazy Ride
The next few trading sessions will constitute what is, for me, a rash of trading as I adjust the allocations within the Secular Trends Portfolio. For readers who have been wondering why it’s been so quiet around here, I offer my apologies for not being able to speak with you more frequently.
I took on some [...]
Goldman’s Reversal on Commodities in 2009 Caps a Bipolar Year; Caterpillar Cut to Sell (CAT)
Goldman has gone from from permabull (remember the $200 oil “super-spike” call from May?) to permabear in less than one year’s time. Earlier this year the call was for an average spot price for crude between $110-$120 through 2011; today the 2009 average spot was pegged at $45. In conjunction, Goldman is slashing estimates for [...]
A Critical Day Approaches for Commodities; A Look at Wheat, Aluminum, Copper (AA, FCX, POT)
In addition to the disappointing close in the U.S. equity markets yesterday, there was also a renewed breakdown in the prices of many commodities. Due to their leverage as catalysts to Potash Corp (POT), Alcoa (AA), and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), I’m focusing in on wheat, aluminum, and copper.
Wheat
After forming a solid bottom around the $500 [...]
Freeport-McMoRan Suspends Dividend; Slashes Targets (FCX)
Copper, gold, and molybdenum producer Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) has released a cast iron, kitchen sink of a statement this morning, announcing the suspension of the $2/share annual dividend and a 50% cut in 2009 capital expenditures, along with volume cuts for copper and moly covering the next two years.
The moves come in response to rapidly falling [...]
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Investopedia Commentary- 3 Retail Rocket Stocks (M, ROST, SPY, FDO, XRT)
- Pharmaceutical Profits That Aren't For The Dogs (MRK, SNY, PFE, PETS, CENT, NVS, ABT))
- Terex Reshapes For The Future (TEX, BUCY, CAT, DE)
- Is Best Buy Still The Better Buy In Electronics? (BBY, RSH, SHLD, WMT, AMZN)
- Oil Service Costs To Move Higher (CLR, XCO, SD, BEXP)
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Pragmatic commentary on U.S. & global investing, demographics & secular trends, and the valuation of anything worth valuing. Objective, unbiased research; We believe in minimal design, zero gimmicks, and maximum results.
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Secular Trends Holdings
- Secular Trends Portfolio Real-Time Positions
- The Fuel That Fed the Subprime Meltdown (Written in September 2007)
- Performance Studies on the DJIA & Fundamental Value Stocks (11/22/08)
- Las Vegas Sands - Are They Sustainable in 2009? (Published 11/15/08)
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