If Q2 Earnings Continue This Trend, We Can Finally Get Back to Stock-Picking
As second quarter earnings roll on, an amazingly high percentage of companies are soundly beating estimates - over 70% thus far. To the eternal pessimists out there, it’s no real harbinger because estimates were set embarrassingly low. However we’re not just seeing minor beats, but an increasing number of major beats - beating estimates by [...]
A New Healthcare Strategy - Branded Pharma Out, Diagnostics, Generics In
“When you lose, Don’t lose the lesson” - The Dalai Lama
For the better part of 5 months I’ve been kicking myself over not dumping Pfizer (PFE) from the Secular Trends Portfolio the day they announced the Wyeth merger. The second I heard about the deal I honestly thought the TV announcer had made a mistake; [...]
The Not-Ready-For-Primetime Stock List
Several readers have asked me what particular stocks are on my radar these days.
The list is actually quite long, but unfortunately it’s chock full of companies that just don’t seem to grasp their own potential. But since I’m currently giving away my best ideas for free, I have no problem presenting a list of my [...]
Highlights From Warren Buffett Interview on CNBC
On the eve of a charity lunch tomorrow that someone will likely pay $2 million to attend, Warren Buffett did a short interview with Becky Quick over on CNBC (see video & summary here). As always, Buffett threw out some great soundbites and displayed his folksy wit (as folksy as guy worth over $40 billion [...]
Exiting Schering Plough, Looking at Going Global
In line with yesterday’s post on some pending changes to the Secular Trends Model Portfolio, I am blowing out the remaining 1850 shares of Schering-Plough in the model. SGP has really just been a floater since the announcement of Merck’s buyout in early March, which initially valued Schering shares at $23.60 in cash and stock.
Since [...]
Weekend Reading: Richie Poor, Moody’s Soul-Searching, Depression Debate Begins
In the somewhat lonely life of a stock analyst these days, I read hundreds upon hundreds of articles, slides, charts, and commentary every week. Most provide a marginal benefit at best, and are just regurgitations at worst.
But as with any mining effort, it’s all about finding the few nuggets that may lead to moments of [...]
Obama Speaks, and The Land Grab Has Been Set
I just finished listening to Obama’s press conference announcing the new economic team, and the market seems generally disappointed by the lack of juicy details. We wanted to hear how big the stimulus package would be, and we secretly hoped to hear that capital gains rates would be preserved to expiration.
We didn’t get either, but [...]
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Pragmatic commentary on U.S. & global investing, demographics & secular trends, and the valuation of anything worth valuing. Objective, unbiased research; We believe in minimal design, zero gimmicks, and maximum results.
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Secular Trends Holdings
- Secular Trends Portfolio Real-Time Positions
- The Fuel That Fed the Subprime Meltdown (Written in September 2007)
- Performance Studies on the DJIA & Fundamental Value Stocks (11/22/08)
- Las Vegas Sands - Are They Sustainable in 2009? (Published 11/15/08)
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