Musings on Petrobras, Economic Recovery (PBR)
There’s little to do when one is wrong but admit, find a lesson, and move on. In that spirit, my decision to trim the majority of the Petrobras (PBR) position in the Secular Trends Portfolio was ill-timed, to say the least. I was concerned about several straight weeks of rising crude inventories, and I didn’t [...]
Mid-Day Market Report - July 10, 2009
Today’s overall market continues to look weak, as the S&P 500 struggles to maintain a key medium-term range of 860-880. The heat map below shows that most sectors are weak with the exception of some selected tech names:(extreme hat tip to FINVIZ.com for their great software)
Chevron issued a profit warning today, while GM is apparently [...]
Philly Fed News and Musings on Market Timing
Well it seems that I didn’t need to be in any kind of rush to get into Micron. While the Philly Fed report was an improvement, it did not add to any existing market catalysts in a meaningful way. While the diffusion index was barely negative and the best result since Sept. ‘08, the index [...]
Federal Reserve Fires Last Bullet - Historic Day for Monetary Policy
We’ve had more than a fair helping of Fed letdowns lately, so today’s announcement was just all the more impressive and historic. Even PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian could only say “wow” at the language and posturing made inside today’s FOMC statement.
In an unprecedented move, the benchmark fed funds rate was set to a “range” of 0% [...]
FedEx, Texas Instruments - Two Warnings, Two Very Different Results (FDX, TXN)
It’s just been raining guidance the past few days. Some companies are dropping it altogether, a few are reaffirming prior cuts, and many more are taking an axe to Q4 and 2009 estimates.
Two particularly noteworthy guidance changes came out after the bell Monday, as FedEx (FDX) and Texas Instruments (TXN) both set new (read: tentative) [...]
Weekend Reading: Richie Poor, Moody’s Soul-Searching, Depression Debate Begins
In the somewhat lonely life of a stock analyst these days, I read hundreds upon hundreds of articles, slides, charts, and commentary every week. Most provide a marginal benefit at best, and are just regurgitations at worst.
But as with any mining effort, it’s all about finding the few nuggets that may lead to moments of [...]
ISM Report Continues Streak of DOA Indicators
This morning’s release of the November ISM Report is yet another economic indicator arriving DOA, reflecting the frozen state of global markets ever since mid-September.
The headline number of 36.2% (a diffusion index - read this PMI tutorial to learn more) is the lowest reading since May of 1982, and 2.7 percentage points lower than the [...]
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Investopedia Commentary- America's Biggest Companies Look Reasonably Priced (XOM, MSFT, QQQQ, AIG, BAC)
- Sandridge Energy Shifts Towards Oil (SD, OXY)
- Stong Dividends Worth A Look (AINV, STD, FNF, NYB, PBCT, NLY, CIM, EQR, HRP, MFA)
- The Bear Market Bottom - One Year Later (SMRT, FITB, DNDN, LVS)
- Anadarko Petroleum Analyst Meeting Review (APC)
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Pragmatic commentary on U.S. & global investing, demographics & secular trends, and the valuation of anything worth valuing. Objective, unbiased research; We believe in minimal design, zero gimmicks, and maximum results.
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Secular Trends Holdings
- Secular Trends Portfolio Real-Time Positions
- The Fuel That Fed the Subprime Meltdown (Written in September 2007)
- Performance Studies on the DJIA & Fundamental Value Stocks (11/22/08)
- Las Vegas Sands - Are They Sustainable in 2009? (Published 11/15/08)
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