Epiphany Investing

Searching Out the Optimal Portfolio of “Revelation” Stocks

Adding Noble Corp, Seabridge Gold to Secular Trends Portfolio (NE, SA)

I’ve been sitting on larger-than-desired cash position of 12.5%, and waiting out what I saw as the potential for a 4-5% pullback in the major indexes. That pullback just doesn’t seem to have gathered its critical mass, with all due nods to the anemic volumes we’re seeing of late. Meanwhile I’ve been pouring over sectors [...]

Musings on Petrobras, Economic Recovery (PBR)

There’s little to do when one is wrong but admit, find a lesson, and move on. In that spirit, my decision to trim the majority of the Petrobras (PBR) position in the Secular Trends Portfolio was ill-timed, to say the least. I was concerned about several straight weeks of rising crude inventories, and I didn’t [...]

Trimming Petrobras, Caterpillar in Secular Trends Portfolio (PBR, CAT)

There hasn’t been a lot of activity here for a couple of weeks, the unfortunate result of other obligations and my ongoing intent to put in 5-6 hours of good reading and research time for every hour spent writing up my conclusions. But hey, if it’s not broke; The Secular Trends Portfolio continues it’s alpha [...]

Trims & Trades for Secular Trends Portfolio

The Secular Trends Portfolio has enjoyed a quiet (0% turnover) first quarter, and now sits with about 20% of outperformance over our benchmark S&P 500. Internally, the portfolio has seen widely divergent returns within the individual holdings, causing the weightings to “get off the rails” from where I’d like them to be.
As such, I am [...]

More on this topic (What's this?)
S&P 500: Day by day analysis. (Emerging Index, 4/6/09)
Using DRIPs for faster compounding of dividends (Dividend Growth Investor, 3/25/09)
S&P 500: Short term overbought (Emerging Index, 3/29/09)
Read more on S&P 500 (SPX), Petrobras, NVIDIA at Wikinvest

Goldman’s Reversal on Commodities in 2009 Caps a Bipolar Year; Caterpillar Cut to Sell (CAT)

Goldman has gone from from permabull (remember the $200 oil “super-spike” call from May?) to permabear in less than one year’s time. Earlier this year the call was for an average spot price for crude between $110-$120 through 2011; today the 2009 average spot was pegged at $45. In conjunction, Goldman is slashing estimates for [...]

Valero Pulls Two Refineries Off the Market As Bidders Vanish (VLO)

For several years Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) has been trying to divest its non-core refining assets, and early bidding action for refineries was fierce (and global) when it began in early 2007. Valero sold its Lima refinery for $1.9 billion, turning a tidy profit and creating a high implied value for the company’s 15 other [...]

Wading Through the CrossCurrents at Dow Chemical (DOW)

In early October I made up a list of 10 Blue Chips that I saw to be unfairly “On the Outs” at the time. The list included market leaders with strong balance sheets and high yields, names like Pfizer (PFE), BP, and Reynolds American (RAI). As I examined the performance of the group since the [...]

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