Caterpillar Crushes Estimates, Raises EPS Guidance for 2009 (CAT)
The Secular Trends Portfolio looks to gobble up a few more scraps of alpha today as largest holding Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) breezed past consensus estimates for $.22 per share in Q2. Net profit (that’s right folks, net) came in at $.60/sh, or $371 million. Ex-out the one-time restructuring costs and Caterpillar posted $.72, so it [...]
If Q2 Earnings Continue This Trend, We Can Finally Get Back to Stock-Picking
As second quarter earnings roll on, an amazingly high percentage of companies are soundly beating estimates - over 70% thus far. To the eternal pessimists out there, it’s no real harbinger because estimates were set embarrassingly low. However we’re not just seeing minor beats, but an increasing number of major beats - beating estimates by [...]
Monday Morning Coffee & Preview - Earnings Upside Continues (IBM, CAT, LVS)
The weak dollar trade is back on today, as the USD is down against most major currencies. This has pushed gold, copper, and other hard commodities up to or near their highest levels of the month. Days like this are generally good for the Secular Trends Portfolio, and in early morning trade the model has [...]
Vale SA May Bid For Mosaic - Let the Great Potash War Begin (MOS, POT, VALE)
Bloomberg reports today that a Brazilian newspaper has hinted at a pending $25b bid by mining giant Vale S.A. (VALE) for The Mosaic Company (MOS), the world’s largest phoshate producer and #2 potash producer. This follows up on earlier reports that Australian miner BHP Billiton was interested in snapping up North American potash assets. Mosaic [...]
Earnings Season Update - Capitalism Rears Its Bruised, Pretty Head (GS, JPM, INTC, UFPI)
I have to say that I’m pleasantly surprised by many of the results we’re seeing in week 2 of this vital earnings season. So far 67% of the 43 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported have beaten estimates.
As I have been spending some time collating earnings results to get a feel for the [...]
Secular Trends Portfolio Update - July 15th - Strong Outperformance Continues
As I’ve contended from the beginning of the Secular Trends Model, this has probably been the most challenging time in history to invest based on long term trends. Hardly a day goes by that I don’t hear a new media outlet ask the question (or state outright) that “buy and hold investing is dead”.
Well, 9 [...]
Adding St. Jude Medical to Secular Trends Model; Simply the Best In Class Device Firm (STJ)
In many ways, today’s action of adding St. Jude Medical (STJ) to the Secular Trends Portfolio is the culmination of a multi-year stock crush on my part. I have been following the company since before the wave of product recalls put a big bruise on the cardiac rhythm management (CRM) space as a whole. These [...]




