Secular Trends Portfolio Updates
Posted on | November 26, 2008 Time: 5:45 am |
I’ve been doing a little tidy work over on the Portfolio Page, and the holdings how reflect the inclusion of Electronic Arts (ERTS) to the model, and the removal of BB&T (BBT). My commentary on EA’s Q3 earnings report discusses the value I saw at the time, and last week I was able to add this cash cow in-the-making at a 20% discount to the stock price post-earnings.
ERTS has suffered through a bit of a Murphy’s Law period, but the stock now reflects very little premium to book value, and in a departure from most assets out there, EA’s could actually be monetized if need be. Shares should see updrafts even in the face of a terribly weak end consumer base.
Other Secular Trends News
I’ve updated the transaction ledger, which is viewable on the “About” page.
For all those keeping score, the Secular Trends Portfolio is down just over 25% since inception, compared to a 31% drop in the S&P 500, my benchmark of choice. I continue to drive the research process with one goal: Find the companies best-positioned to profit from secular trends. In this market all assumptions must be constantly re-evaluated, as the global economy of the future is hitting critical forks in the proverbial road with each passing day.
As I noted following the Obama press conference from Monday, the stimulus focus in 2009 will come largely from the blueprint laid out by Larry Summers. This means healthcare, energy, education, and infrastructure, and it means select companies will soon see their order book fill up - Summers wants to spend, and spend big. Just how much those desires can be brought forth is still up for grabs given the state of the national balance sheet.
If there’s a particular company you’d like to see discussed, feel free to drop me a line or leave a comment behind. I’ll try to get to them as readily as possible.
Ryan Barnes
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Pragmatic commentary on U.S. & global investing, demographics & secular trends, and the valuation of anything worth valuing. Objective, unbiased research; We believe in minimal design, zero gimmicks, and maximum results.
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Secular Trends Holdings
- Secular Trends Portfolio Real-Time Positions
- The Fuel That Fed the Subprime Meltdown (Written in September 2007)
- Performance Studies on the DJIA & Fundamental Value Stocks (11/22/08)
- Las Vegas Sands - Are They Sustainable in 2009? (Published 11/15/08)
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