Epiphany Investing

Searching Out the Optimal Portfolio of “Revelation” Stocks

Barron’s Puts a Bull on the Cover; Abelson Notes Consumer Weakness

Posted on | November 2, 2008 Time: 1:12 am |

Ok, so it was a wounded bull, broken and fight-battered. But he was still standing, and Barron’s continues to sing a bullish, albeit muted tone. In his leadoff piece Alan Abelson noted that nobody really trusts the initial GDP figure for the 3rd quarter of (.3%), with most seeing the number fall when official numbers come out in a few weeks.

Abelson also noted several boosts to GDP that are not going to be around for long: defense spending up 18%, and inventories providing an extra 60 basis points to total GDP. For me the scariest metric is consumer spending down 3.1%, the worst showing since 1980. Think about how little of the true crisis was captured before September 30 (and much earlier if you count when the data is actually tracked)…the fourth quarter is shaping up to be bad, on the order of down 2-4% annualized. I have expressed my ultimate fear of consumer cyclicals and anyone overly exposed to the financial health of, well, us.

We all need to be prepared. Let’s just start getting some stabs at 2009 earnings for the S&P 500 out there. Barron’s has another piece focusing on just that, so I’ll fill you in after I actually finish reading this week’s issue.

disclosure: author does not hold positions in the companies mentioned.

More on this topic (What's this?)
A Decline In Bullish Investor Sentiment (Disciplined Approach to Investing, 1/24/10)
ETF Screening - Candlestick Patterns 27 Jan (Short-Term Trading, 1/28/10)
Investor Sentiment: They Don't Ring A Bell At The Top (The Technical Take, 1/17/10)
Read more on Bull market at Wikinvest
  • Share/Bookmark
Category: Broad Markets, Economic Indicators, Investing Philosophy
Tags: > > >

Comments